#2 - The need for disconfirming information
See end of post for a tl;dr
During a passionate political discussion over dinner last week, one of my friends proclaimed:
"I can't believe why anybody would vote for Trump!"
When I began to list of a bunch of (admittedly) irrational reasons for why people could have voted for Trump, my friend retorted "that he was very logical and that he couldn’t accept those opinions". It didn't matter to him that most voters are illogical. He simply could not understand their point of view.
What interested me about this statement that I too had experienced this similar lack of understanding about opinions/views/ideas different to my own (and continue to do so to this day) and I think it explains a lot of what is going wrong with our world today.
Conformity bias
In our first Leadership class at Kellogg, we learn about biases that can affect managerial decision making but can also be used to influence others. Conformity bias is one such decision making bias where you seek out information that reinforces your views and reject/ignore/scrutinise information that challenges your views.
Conformity bias prevents you from seeing the world as it really is and from making accurate decisions. It often results in you reinforcing the views that you have already held.
Conformity bias can play out in many different ways but the three examples I want to discuss are:
- President Trump
- The Same Sex Marriage Postal vote in Australia
- My failed business school applications
President Trump
For many people, including conservatives and political Mavens, President Trump's election came as a surprise and continues to remain an intellectual mystery. How could a New York billionaire construct such a fabricated, often contradictory, electoral platform and win the votes of rural Americans from the heartland? Why do these people still support Trump when he has broken promises and made decisions that harm their interests?
Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Associates, says that if you can understand the buyers and sellers for any product, together with their motivations, you can price pretty much any asset. This is a good model to use when understanding Trump voters.
The first motivation that many people overlook for Trump Voters is abortion rights. For many social conservatives in America, abortion rights is one of the primary social issues on which the country could revert to the past. For this to happen, a test case would need to go before the Supreme Court and have the Supreme Court rule in a way that restricts abortion rights. Such a ruling would never happen if a liberal Justice was elected to replace the seat vacated by Scalia. To ensure this would never happen, many social conservatives would have voted for Trump, to ensure that the empty seat would be replaced by a fellow conservative. For these voters, Trump's other crazy actions don't matter. In their minds, he has satisfied everything they wanted from him.
A second motivation that people overlook is that Trump's supporters believe what he says and don't believe what the mainstream media or other reputable sources state. In their mind, if Trump says the country and his Presidency is great, then it actually is. If the failing New York Times and other Liberal Media Fake News say that Trump has failed to make any major legislative achievements and improve the economy, then they are lying. In Machiavelli's Prince, he states that your actions don't matter but, instead, it is people's perception of your actions that matter. For Trump's detractors, it's hard to look past the fact that Trump isn't doing well and this his Presidency is ineffectual. Unfortunately, Trump's supporters don't care about what he is doing - they can perceive his actions however they want (which is almost always favourably).
Same Sex Marriage (SSM) vote in Australia
The upcoming SSM vote in Australia is another reason where conformity bias could have a significant impact. Many of my left of centre friends cannot imagine: 1) why people would vote No, and 2) that the No vote could actually win.
Having held the same biased view, I spoke to socially conservative friends, who are going to vote 'No' in the upcoming survey, to understand why they were going to vote 'No'. Most of the arguments come down to the fact that they hold a religiously derived definition of marriage that they do not want to violate, even in a secular setting. Additionally, Same Sex Marriage is the social conservative's last stand against the floodwaters of social progress and depravity. If SSM is allowed, then society will fall down the slippery slope towards other forms of unconscionable social behaviour such as Safe Schools, bestiality and the end of morality. Finally, many people also have a legitimate concern about religious protection. Given that the final SSM bill has not been released, they have no guarantee that religious freedom will be protected in the SSM bill. This becomes a case of 'better safe than sorry' with social conservatives voting against the bill in case it harms them or their religious institution.
For such voters, the rights and wellbeing of same sex couples pale in comparison to the risk these socially conservative voters face towards their identities and their own potential rights and freedoms. As such, heartwarming stories (such as couples waiting to get married and parents and grandparents who have changed their mind to become supporters of SSM) mean nothing. For them, SSM is a threat to their very existence and people reach much more viscerally to potential losses than they do towards equivalent potential gains.
The other thing that many liberals ignore is the possibility that the 'No' vote could actually win. All elections in Australia are compulsory, but the SSM vote is not. As such, high support for the SSM vote may not necessarily translate into high turnout amongst SSM supporters. Additionally, SSM detractors have much more at stake than SSM supporters (as stated above).
If I had to place a bet on the result of the SSM vote, I would place it on 'No'. I hope I am proved wrong.
Failed business school applications
The final example of confirmation bias is my own experience with numerous failed business school applications. I had a range of different people review my applications, including alumni of the schools I applied to. When people were reviewing my applications, I often asked them what they thought about my applications and made incremental changes based on their comments. When my reviewers said they were happy with my application, I was happy! I wanted to hear that my applications were great and I wanted to hear reasons why my applications were great.
Unfortunately, with the benefit of hindsight, I can see that many of my applications were weak and not well thought through.
Instead of asking my reviewers what they thought about my applications, I should have asked them why they would reject my application. This would have helped overcome my own bias to want to hear good news and would have helped me write stronger applications. It's an approach that I will definitely take in the future.
In conclusion
If you want to better understand the world, and really make a difference, seek out disconfirming information and ask yourself "Why would this make sense?". It will change the way you view the world and help you better make an impact, especially in politics or other contentious arenas.
tl;dr
- My friend couldn't understand why people voted for Trump
- This is an example of confirmation bias - where you seek out info that supports your world view and you reject/ignore info that opposes your world view
- Liberals can't understand why people voted for Trump but there are some reasons (abortion rights, Trump supporters' own confirmation bias towards media)
- There are many logical reasons for No voters in the Australian SSM and a low turnout could mean that the No vote wins (I think the No vote will win)
- I should have asked more critical questions to my MBA application reviewers